Roma v Genoa
Italian Serie A · 17 ott
Roma
−6,1 punti quota allungata
1,40 → 1,53 probabilità 71,4% → 65,4%
Le quote si muovono.
Noi ne teniamo il registro.
Registriamo i prezzi scambiati sui mercati pre-partita di un betting exchange, quattro volte al giorno. Poi misuriamo che cosa quei movimenti hanno anticipato davvero — compresi i casi, molti, in cui non anticipano niente.
58giorni registrati
39.575rilevazioni di quote
10.338mercati seguiti
10.262esiti verificati
Ordinati per data della partita. Solo mercati con più di 10.000 € scambiati: sotto quella soglia un movimento non è un segnale, è una singola operazione. La misura è in punti di probabilità implicita — sulle quote alte una variazione percentuale enorme sposta la probabilità di pochissimo.
Celta Vigo v Juventus
UEFA Europa League · 15 ott
Juventus
−2,2 punti quota allungata
2,26 → 2,38 probabilità 44,2% → 42,0%
Atalanta v Pafos FC
UEFA Conference League · 15 ott
Atalanta
+3,0 punti quota accorciata
1,44 → 1,38 probabilità 69,4% → 72,5%
Ferencvaros v Plzen
UEFA Europa League · 15 ott
Ferencvaros
+3,5 punti quota accorciata
2,08 → 1,94 probabilità 48,1% → 51,5%
Benfica v Celtic
UEFA Europa League · 15 ott
Benfica
+5,8 punti quota accorciata
1,29 → 1,20 probabilità 77,5% → 83,3%
Torreense v Sunderland
UEFA Europa League · 15 ott
Sunderland
+4,7 punti quota accorciata
1,43 → 1,34 probabilità 69,9% → 74,6%
Scritte da noi
Guide e analisi
EN
Betfair Scalping: What It Actually Requires
Betfair scalping in numbers: the tick ladder, what commission leaves on a one-tick trade, four preconditions, and how few markets have the depth for it.
ENTennis Trading Strategies and the Conditions Each One Quietly Assumes
The main tennis trading strategies on an exchange, what each one quietly requires: live speed, in-play liquidity, commission margin, and how each fails.
ENCorrect Score Trading: How the Market Prices a Scoreline
How an exchange correct score market is built and priced, why one goal reprices every scoreline at once, and where liquidity and spreads break the trade.
ENFrom Matched Betting to Trading: What Changes About the Money
How capital changes role when moving from matched betting to exchange trading: liability cover versus drawdown absorption, why old sizing rules fail.
ENWhy Do Bookmakers Restrict Accounts, and What It Tells You
Account restriction is a commercial decision, not a punishment: how bookmaker margins work, what appears to trigger limits, and why exchanges differ.
ENIs Matched Betting Still Profitable? The Honest Version
Does matched betting still work? Free bet retention arithmetic, qualifying losses and account restriction, worked through so the verdict can be checked.
ENMatched Betting vs Trading: Two Activities That Only Look Alike
Matched betting extracts a known edge from a promotion; exchange trading takes a position on a price. What carries over, what does not, and why.
ENTennis Trading on Betfair: What the Pre-match Prices Do
Our 38-day exchange dataset holds 3,346 tennis markets: what pre-match prices do, why a median volume of 40 EUR makes most of them untradeable.
ITTrading sportivo automatico: cosa sapere prima
Cosa comporta il trading sportivo automatico: raccolta dati, regole, API, latenza e overfitting, e i risultati di 26.766 rilevazioni di quote su exchange.
ENBetfair Football Trading: How Pre-match Markets Behave Before Kick-off
How pre-match football markets on Betfair behave: team news, liquidity, and what 26,766 odds readings say about prices that shorten or drift.
ITCome leggere il movimento delle quote pre-partita
Guida alla lettura del movimento delle quote pre-partita: probabilità implicita, overround, liquidità e cosa dicono 26.766 rilevazioni sui nostri dati.
ENHow to Lay the Draw: Getting the Exit Right
How to lay the draw with the focus on the exit: greening up arithmetic, stop-loss levels, time decay on a 0-0, and the break-even maths behind it.
ENHow to Trade on Betfair: A Beginner's Guide
How to trade on Betfair explained from scratch: back and lay defined, a green-up calculation worked through in full, plus commission, liquidity and spread.
ENBetfair Trading Strategies: A Practical Overview
A practical overview of the main Betfair trading strategies, what each one depends on, and the market conditions where each of them stops working.
ENLay the Draw: How the Strategy Works
How laying the draw works on a betting exchange: the entry, what has to happen, how traders close out, and the specific ways the position falls apart.
ENWhat Odds Movement Before Kick-off Actually Tells Us
We recorded a month of exchange prices to test whether odds movement before kick-off predicts results better than the closing price already implies.
ITTrading sportivo: come funziona davvero
Come funziona il trading sportivo su un betting exchange: back e lay, liability, chiusura della posizione e i motivi per cui la maggior parte perde.